Climatic Variability and Linear Trend Models for the Six Major Regions of Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan
Climatic Variability and Linear Trend Models
Keywords:
Climate, temperature, precipitation, glaciers, Gilgit-Baltistan (GB)Abstract
Global warming is one of the main cause of climatic variability along with the increased frequency and intensity of extreme events in Pakistan. Northern Pakistan is composed of the greatest mountain complex having the junction of three mountain ranges Himalaya, Karakoram and Hindukush (HKH), which is reservoir of world third largest ice mass after the polar region. Snow and glaciers, the most sensitive indicators of warming, have been giving the negative signals at large. To quantify the impact
of the climate change in Central Karakoram National Park (CKNP) region, the temperature and precipitation data gathered from different sources have been analyzed. Those include in-situ daily observations of mean maximum, mean minimum and mean temperatures extracted from the data archives of Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) at six stations for the period 1981 to 2012.No significant change in the total amount of precipitation has been found for the area of study which is quite consistent
with the entire Gilgit-Baltistan (GB). However, the rise of varying magnitude has been noticed in day and night temperatures which resulted in a positive change in the mean daily temperatures. The most increase is found to be 0.04 degree C/year in Bunji with both day and night rising temperatures. The least increased of mean day temperature is 0.006 degree C/year in Chilas. While, in Gupis, the most increase in mean day temperature was observed as 0.065 degree C/year. Moreover, precipitation in Astore and Skarduhas exhibited a decreasing trend merits further studies.
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